All real estate agents, home buyers, sellers, investors, and other stakeholders have experienced higher home prices and mortgage rates throughout 2023. More interestingly, both rates have been competing throughout. Still, property experts and real estate businesses could not decide which would climb faster and higher.
Generally, mortgage rates and home prices are inversely proportional to each other. However, 2023 was unique because both rates remained on the higher side. This situation changed slightly at the end of this year because the rise is slowing. We claim it because mortgage rates have dropped quickly and significantly. Conversely, home prices are stable, and the experts think this trend will continue in 2024.
This series of changed events, numbers, and expectations has begged the question. Should investors start thinking about real estate investments? Ditching the Magic 8 Ball, meaningful statistics and expert advice will help us understand the situation more predictably.
So, let us get the accurate real estate market situation through proper analysis and decide accordingly!
What is happening in the real estate market: The current situation?
Future decisions largely depend on past numbers. Therefore, it is essential to study the current real estate market situation. For that, authentic housing market statistics can work better, and we can rely on the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which provides the most accurate real estate market statistics. Let us explore these statistics together!
Median home sale price
It had been rising consistently and consecutively for three months, ending in September when the price increased by 2.8%. This number is compared with the previous year’s September. The price of a median home was $394,300 in September.
Housing Inventory
According to NAR’s statistics, 1.13 million units came for registration in September. This number is 2.7% more than the numbers in August. However, compared with the previous year, the drop is 8.1%. If this situation continues, unsold homes can be sold in 3.4 months, according to September data. It is slightly higher than in August when this number was at 3.3.
A crucial fact a real estate investor must remember is that the Federal Reserve sets the tone of the housing market. This dependency decides whether the market is in an upward or downward direction. Currently, the Fed has been fighting with a high inflation rate. It confirms the housing market is still at the top.
Another important aspect is the higher interest rates. This increased interest has kept the borrowing costs on the higher side. This situation has squeezed the housing market, meaning homebuyers still suffer. Furthermore, this situation has dissuaded existing homeowners, and they want to hold their properties for some time.
The impact of inflation rate
We cannot ignore the inflation rate in this discussion, which is still at 3.2%, higher than the Fed’s expectations. According to the Federal Reserves, it must be at 2% at the end of October 2023 that could not be achieved. The most encouraging aspect that matters the most when deciding about real estate investment is that this inflation rate has not been increasing quickly. So, the experts think that this tide will shift. Therefore, they believe the finished raising rate is intentional from the Fed side.
Some real estate experts think that 2024 can be better. The reason is that they expect that mortgage rates are ready to cool down. So, if mortgage rates retreat, more homebuyers and sellers will enter the market, improving the current situation. The experts anticipate that home sales will increase by 15% in 2024. It is encouraging for real estate investors.
Moving Forward: Looking for climbing demands and decreased mortgage rates!
November was the best month after a long time when we experienced rapidly receded interest rates. Previously, these rates were increasing rapidly in an upward direction. Conversely, mortgage rates have declined. Therefore, we expect mortgage demand to move in the opposite direction.
The Mortgage Bankers Association came into the news on 15 November. Their report shows that mortgage demand has increased tremendously in the last five weeks. This report also confirms that the rise in mortgage demand is 2.8% more than the previous week. This impact affected 30-year mortgage rates tremendously, which fell to 7.77%, at the lowest position in two months.
Dependency of mortgage rate volatility
2023 has been a year when mortgage rate volatility remained in the news. The reason was the initial rapid increase in the rates and subsequent downfall overnight. As we have been discussing mortgage rates, we must be aware of ever-changing variables that can affect these rates. Here are these factors:
- Bond market
- Mortgage demand
- Mortgage lender competition
- Fed policy
- Current employment rate
- The Fed’s interest rate
- Monetary policy
- Housing Inventory
- Consumer spending
- Construction supply, demand, and costs
- 10-year treasury yields
The previous section on essential factors was related to macroeconomic considerations. We also want to introduce some microeconomic and personal borrower factors that can affect mortgage rates. We have listed down some of these factors for your consideration:
- Home Location
- Credit score
- Home price
- Loan term
- Down Payment Amount
- Interest rate type
- Debt-to-income ration
- Loan-to-value ratio
Where will Fed Rate stay in 2024 Real Estate?
We do not expect any realistic change in the housing supply. It means a shortage of for-sale homes will remain in 2024. This situation has been favoring home sellers for a long time. Moreover, homebuyers have been priced out during this period, as they have been waiting for a long situation shift. Real estate experts and economists think 2024 will be a changed year, especially from mid-2024; we can expect a tremendous shift.
When exploring the reasons behind this shift, CME Group’s FedWatch tool announces some predictions. According to them, the Federal Reserve plans to cut rates during 2024. The experts think that June, September, and December will be when the decision to cut rates will be made.
If the situation remains the same as predicted, we can expect a lower cost of borrowing money. If it happens, we can easily claim that businesses will spend more. It will be an indication of economic growth.
We cannot ignore the consumer price index during this discussion. According to the US government report of October 2023, the Consumer Price Index of September rose to 3.7%. However, compared to a year-over-year rise, it rose 3.2%. These statistics also show promise and encouragement. If this situation continues, rising interest rates will follow us.
Calculate Your House Value in 2024
The Real Estate Market in 2024
Lower interest and mortgage rates encourage real estate investors, buyers, and developers. When homebuyers find lower borrowing costs and a cost-efficient supply of construction materials, we can experience a higher supply of homes in the market.
If the situation continues, 2024 will be totally different from 2023.
When exploring opportunities for real estate investors, they will have more opportunities in 2024. They will have a margin of negotiations to help them generate profits from the first day of investment. With lower interest rates, demand may also boost, which helps increase home resale prices.
Why should we think about real estate investment? Real estate has been one of those businesses that offer high-yielding choices for decades. Let us discuss some of the reasons that make real estate investing one of the most significant options for the most desired return on investment!
Inflation-proof
Higher inflation rates do not affect real estate investment much. This feature makes investment in real estate unique compared to a traditional bank account. For example, if the inflation rate rises, the rental prices will also increase. It confirms that the inflation rate will not affect you much because your income will steadily increase.
Diversification
We all love diversification in our portfolio, and investing in income-earning assets makes it possible for you. Intelligent investors only place some eggs in a single basket. So, choose various properties to extract the maximum benefits and mitigate potential losses.
Long-term growth
Real estate investment is long-term. And if it is so, we can also expect long-term growth. For example, if the cost of homeownership rises, which remains on the cards, you can increase your rental income. So, you can grow steadily if you invest in real estate.
High returns
No liquid asset or bank account can benefit you more than a real estate investment. Higher average annual returns make real estate investing the best choice worldwide.
Let investment become a part of your real estate portfolio!
The above discussion has confirmed that real estate investment can be the best option in 2024 if someone wants to make the future bright. Even if you are a first-time investor, entering the real estate market in 2024 suits you the most as the market is becoming accessible for all.
You can start with short-note investment opportunities available in residential and commercial properties simultaneously. Also, your investment can have six, 12, 18, and 24 months (2 years). At maturity, you can sell and get your cashback with profits. You can also reinvest your profits to improve your position as a real-time investor. This way, you open a new window of passive income that always becomes available to enhance your lifestyle persistently.
The real estate market is ready to flourish in 2024. Therefore, it is not time to leave this opportunity of investing in real estate unattended.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did home prices and mortgage rates behave in 2023?
We found home prices and mortgage rates at a higher level, defying the inverse relationship between the two that is generally observed. However, by this year’s end, the situation looks impressive and improved.
What are the most influential factors for the real estate market?
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at the highest position for some time. Moreover, the US government could not control the high inflation rate. Both these factors have squeezed the market.
What do you expect in 2024 regarding home sales and mortgage rates?
From mid-2024, the interest and mortgage gate will start melting down. If the situation remains according to the predictions, we can assume that the home sales will increase by 15%.
From which factors do mortgage rates affect?
Many macro, microeconomic, and personal factors affect mortgage rates. Some factors are employment rates, housing inventory, bond market, Fed policy, credit score, loan terms, home locations, etc.
Why do you claim that real estate investment is inflation-proof?
As with every impact on the inflation rate, your rental income improves. This situation leads you to offset the effect a higher inflation rate can have on your income. Financial survival can be ensured if we decide intelligently about real-time investment.
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